Streaming bundles were supposed to solve the unbundling problem the industry created for itself. By 2024 every major service had bundle partnerships. By 2026, the data is in, and bundle fatigue is now a real thing.

The pattern in subscriber data over the past twelve months is consistent across multiple operators. Bundle adoption has plateaued. Bundle churn has crept up. The acquisition cost-per-bundle subscriber, when honestly accounted, is no longer obviously better than the cost of a direct subscriber.

What’s driving the fatigue is hard to pin to one cause but the contributing factors are clear. Subscribers who signed up for a bundle to get the bonus service are realising they don’t actually use the bonus service. Bill consolidation never really happened — most bundles still bill separately even when they’re co-marketed. And the savings are real but small enough that subscribers don’t strongly remember why they bundled in the first place.

The interesting subscriber behavior is the rise of what I’d call rotating subscriptions. Subscribers cancel a service the moment they finish a specific show, then resubscribe months later when something else they want is on. Streaming services have known about this for years. What’s changed is the frequency, which is now high enough to materially affect ARPU calculations at the major operators.

Ad-supported tiers have continued to grow as a proportion of the subscriber base. The Netflix and Disney+ ad tiers are now the default acquisition path for new subscribers in many markets. Whether the lifetime value math actually works on these tiers is the unanswered question that’s going to land hard at some point in 2027 or 2028.

For Australian subscribers, the practical advice has become roughly the same: subscribe for what you watch, cancel when you don’t, and don’t pay for the bundle unless you’re going to use the second service. The streaming services preferred a world where everyone subscribed to everything. The world that’s actually emerging is a lot closer to a la carte than they wanted.

The next two years will probably see consolidation. Smaller services are going to merge or be acquired. The mid-tier services that aren’t part of a major media group are the most exposed. Whether that’s good for subscribers or just leads to a smaller number of larger bundles is the open question.